May 2025 APA Newsletter
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The American Politics Association (APA) aims to provide the St Andrews community with a platform for open and nonpartisan conversation surrounding U.S. politics.
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Fractures in Transatlantic Relations: Strained Ties with Europe
Jillian McLeod
In his second term as U.S. president, Donald Trump’s economic agenda has not strayed from his precedent. Marked by dramatic–and perhaps catastrophic– tariffs, rash and unpredictable actions continue to ooze out of the White House. With his gaze set upon Europe, Trump has enacted steep taxes on imported goods from the EU for reasons he continues to change, including encouraging U.S. consumers to purchase domestically-produced goods, increasing government tax revenue, and spurring greater investment in the US. The result has been widespread panic and a fractured relationship with the EU.
Trump initially imposed 20% reciprocal tariffs on all goods coming from the EU, but lowered them to 10% for 90 days to allow time for negotiations to take place. A tariff of 25% on foreign cars, steel, and aluminium remains as well. The response from European leaders has been dismay and a swift reorientation of international economic partnerships and priorities.
The EU, now that the US is largely rejecting economic cooperation, has made rapid efforts to establish itself as a liberal trade powerhouse open widely for business. The transatlantic relationship between the US and Europe is Europe’s largest partnership, with two-way commerce totalling 1.6 trillion euros. The fragility of this relationship has prompted new alliances and partnerships for the EU, with many countries looking to Brussels as a reliable economic partner that won’t “change their minds overnight”, says European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Under von der Leyen’s direction, decades-long talks with the South American Mercosur trade bloc reached a conclusion, as well as talks with Mexico and Switzerland, and negotiations with Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates have been initiated.
The organization has also let go of some of its past protectionist values, an action that has reinforced its new role as an international trade go-getter. Historically, the EU has used trade policy to assert its values on human rights and sustainability, leading it to reject partnerships with certain countries. But in urgently seeking a replacement for the U.S., there is a movement to open new trade routes and reach new free trade agreements out of geopolitical necessity. However, an EU deal with China remains unlikely, as there is worry that the European market will be barraged with Chinese imports as they remain locked out of the U.S..
Domestic shock waves continue to ripple as well. A dozen states have sued the Trump administration in the U.S. Court of International Trade, arguing that the economic policy is unlawful and was implemented on the ground of “whims”. Trump enacted the tariffs using the rationale of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, under which tariffs can only be imposed by Congress when an emergency presents an “unusual and extraordinary threat” from abroad. The states that lodged the lawsuit, including New York, Colorado, and Nevada, among others, also assert that the tariffs have caused immense economic chaos and disruption domestically, with Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes calling the action “insane” and “not only economically reckless” but “illegal”.
Gavin Newsom, Governor of California, has also sued the administration in the California District Court, arguing that his state could lose billions of dollars in revenue as the largest importer in the U.S. In response, White House Spokesperson Kush Desai said the Trump administration “remains committed to addressing this national emergency that’s decimating America’s industries and leaving our workers behind with every tool at our disposal, from tariffs to negotiations.”
A resolution to this has yet to show itself. European officials report it being too optimistic that a trade deal including lowered tariffs and the avoidance of EU countermeasures can be achieved amidst tense negotiations with the Trump administration. Navigating these talks will be difficult, especially against the backdrop of recent fines by the EU on American tech giants Apple and Meta; the companies were fined hundreds of millions of euros each for breaching EU digital competition laws.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visited the White House in mid-April, her presence helping to build a bridge over the choppy waters of the EU-U.S. relationship. The first European leader to visit Trump since his instatement of 20% tariffs, Meloni was praised as a “great prime minister” by Trump as they stated their shared vision to “make the West great again.” During the visit, Trump confidently promised that an EU tariff deal was imminent.
If a deal is not reached, the tariffs will likely have a devastating impact on the global economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned of the dangers of Trump’s policy, forecasting a U.S. growth outlook of 1.8% in 2025, a value 0.9 percentage points less than what was estimated in January. The global growth forecast is also down 0.5 percentage points from a previous estimate, now sitting at 2.8%, and Europe will face economic decline, with GDP taking a particular hit. Investors fear possible retaliation from the targets of Trump’s tariffs, and their outlook is negative from the significant uncertainty that lay ahead.
As we enter what IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Oliver Gourinchas describes as an era where “the global system that has operated for the past 80 years is being reset”, the volatility of Trump’s economic agenda puts in jeopardy the global economy and a decades-long relationship of cooperation between the United States and Europe. Questions remain on how the debacle will be resolved, but regardless, under the looming shadow of Trump, a quick reckoning of new economic partnerships and alliances will be forced upon the world.
References
BBC. (2025, April 17). Italy’s Meloni says “we hope to make the West Great Again” in Trump meeting. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cewgn4jnkd2t.
Browne, R. (2025, April 23). EU hits Apple and Metawith nearly $800 million in fines amid U.S. trade tensions. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/eu-fines-meta-and-apple-for-breaching-digital-antitrust-rules.html.
Clarke, J. (2025, April 23). What are tariffs, how do they work and why is Trump using them?. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn93e12rypgo.
Ellyatt, H. (2025, April 24). Tariffs will harm us all, European officials warn - with more work needed to reach a trade deal. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/24/european-officials-warn-more-work-needed-to-reach-a-trade-deal-with-us.html.
Gijs, C. (2025, April 22). Trump’s tariff war empowers Europe’s free traders. POLITICO. https://www.politico.eu/article/us-donald-trump-tariff-war-empowering-eu-europe-free-trade-commission/.
Lagos, M. (2025, April 17). Trump’s tariffs could wreck California’s economy. The state is suing. KQED. https://www.kqed.org/news/12036199/trumps-tariffs-could-wreck-californias-economy-the-state-is-suing.
Nam, R. (2025, April 22). The global economy will be hit hard by Trump’s tariffs, IMF warns. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2025/04/22/nx-s1-5372588/trump-tariffs-imf-trade-world-economy.
Press, T. A. (2025, April 23). A dozen states sue the Trump administration to stop tariff policy. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2025/04/23/g-s1-62417/trump-tariff-lawsuits-states.
Reid, J. (2025, April 10). European Union to put countermeasures to U.S. tariffs on hold for 90 days. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/european-union-to-put-countermeasures-to-us-tariffs-on-hold-for-90-days.html.
The Fallout of Tariff Announcements
Ainsley McLoy
Warren Buffett, revered American investor and chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., recently added to the large body of criticism on President Trump’s economic strategy. He recommended that “balanced trade is good for the world” and “trade should not be used as a weapon” (Stempel, 2025). Buffett’s advice represents an important intersection between American domestic and foreign economic policy. The installation of baseline and custom reciprocal tariffs has provoked debate on the future of free trade and global economic advancement. This debate is highly relevant to American businesses and consumers, who will flourish or flounder when the market changes. In the short-term the U.S. stock market plunged, with indexes like the S&P 500 dropping 12%, comparable to major events like Covid-19 and the 2008 financial crisis (Wile, 2025). The market revived when the president backtracked on his ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, announcing a 90 day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Regardless of market fluctuation, Buffett maintains his characteristic bullish strategy and long-term market optimism (Stempel, 2025).
President Donald Trump’s plan to “tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens” (Grantham-Phillips, 2025) has taken two forms since the economic ‘Liberation Day’– baseline and reciprocal. Trump first established a baseline of 10% tariffs on all foreign imports, and 25% on certain sectors, punishing global non-reliance on U.S. trade. This, he reasons, will encourage the American consumer to buy American brands and boost American manufacturing. A notable example of this policy surfaced on May 5, as President Trump revealed his decision to place a 100% levy on foreign films. He argues that these tariffs will save Hollywood from “A very fast death” (Hoskins, 2025). However, changing the United States’ reliance on foreign goods will not benefit the consumer in the short term. Tariffs will drive up prices for the American consumer and may increase inflation, which was a critical topic in his 2024 presidential campaign. Amidst Trump Tariffs, the Federal Reserve chair - Jerome Powell - expects to hold interest rates steady at 4.25-4.5 % (Saphir, 2025). While it is still too early for prediction, the Fed will be closely following the impacts of ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs on consumers. The International Monetary Fund has cut their forecast for global growth and expects the United States to suffer the most from tariffs out of the G7 states (Clarke, 2025).
Secondly, Trump established custom reciprocal tariffs as bargaining chips for political goals. The United States has targeted China with a 145% levy, provoking China to establish 125% retributive tariffs on U.S. products (Desrochers, 2025). These taxes will affect all goods imported to the U.S., from machinery and electronics to household goods and fast fashion. These every day price increases will be acutely felt by Americans, especially after the cancellation of “de minimis” trade policy which exempted goods under $800 (Redmond, 2025). However, President Trump argues that the benefits outweigh the costs– one of his reasons being the minimisation of cartels' ability to smuggle drugs in everyday packages (Desrochers, 2025). The White House Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, described Amazon’s plan to display the tariff price change per product as “hostile and political” (Leavitt, 2025) however this practice is being adopted by many major retailers and shipping services. Moreover, Chinese exporters have begun to find loopholes in U.S. tariff policy. Concerns have been raised by Financial Times that these exporters are “place-of-origin washing” goods by redirecting them through a third country and disguising the product’s true origin (Uddin, 2025).
Additionally, Mexico and Canada, natural American allies, have also been targeted with tariffs meant to address trade imbalances and achieve U.S. political goals. Both neighbors have been given 25% blanket levies, with some variability in certain sectors. However, USMCA (The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) compliant goods are exempt from these tariffs. The United States hopes to use tariffs to pressure Mexico and Canada to take decisive action against the drug trade (especially Fentanyl) and illegal immigration at the U.S. border (Green, 2025). Trump’s strategy to undermine America’s closest allies in the Americas and in Europe, may well alienate the United States from the international system. The Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, definitively proclaimed the old US-Canada relationship to be over, and announced that Canada would turn to French and British economic partners due to the volatility and unreliability of the U.S. (Saltman, 2025). These decisions underline the Trump administration’s conviction of American exceptionalism and subsequent protectionist economic policies.
Overall, the Trump administration’s tariff strategy reflects a broader shift toward economic protectionism and nationalistic trade policy, aiming to boost American industry, job market and overall dominance in global markets. However, these policies have not performed well, and have elicited a negative response from American businesses and consumers who must contend with higher prices and increased inflation. Moreover, the Trump administration's damaging tariff policies have resulted in a convoluted foreign policy strategy, due to frequent pauses, revaluations, and cancellations. While President Trump frames tariffs as tools for political leverage and economic revitalization, fiscally conservative critics like Warren Buffett – the ‘Oracle of Omaha’ - warn that such tactics may undermine global cooperation and economic prosperity. As the effects of these policies unfold, the balance between national interests and global integration remains a pressing issue.
References
Clarke, J. (2025). What are Tariffs and Why is Trump Using Them? BBC. [online] 23 Apr. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn93e12rypgo.
Desrochers, D. (2025). Trump’s Tariffs Come for Fast fashion, and the Blowback Could Be fierce. [online] POLITICO. Available at: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/02/trump-tariffs-online-chinese-goods-00322654.
Grantham-Philips, W. (2025). A Timeline of Trump’s Tariff Actions so Far. [online] PBS News. Available at: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/a-timeline-of-trumps-tariff-actions-so-far.
Green, E. and Ljunggren, D. (2025). Canada, Mexico Not Subject to New Global Rates as Fentanyl Tariff Still in Place. Reuters. [online] 2 Apr. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-mexico-not-subject-new-global-rates-while-fentanyl-border-order-place-2025-04-02/.
Hoskins, P. (2025). Trump tariffs: US President Says Non-US Movies to Be Hit with 100% Levies. BBC. [online] 5 May. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjr7e2z1rxyo.
Leavitt, K. (2025). Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and Scott Bessent Brief Members of the Media, Apr. 29, 2025. [online] The White House . Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siqENvfCkWQ.
Redmond, N. (2025). De Minimis Loophole is Officially Closed — Get Ready for Higher Prices. [online] Business Insider. Available at: https://www.businessinsider.com/de-minimis-is-over-higher-prices-longer-waits-trumps-tariffs-2025-5.
Saltman, M. (2025). Old US-Canada Relationship is ‘Over,’ Warns Canadian Prime Minister. [online] CNN. Available at: https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/27/americas/canada-trump-tariffs-response-latam-intl [Accessed 6 May 2025].
Saphir, A. (2025). Fed Policymakers Expected to Keep Rates Steady as Tariffs Roil Outlook. Reuters. [online] 5 May. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-policymakers-expected-keep-rates-steady-tariffs-roil-outlook-2025-05-05/.
Stempel, J. and McGee, S. (2025). Buffett Defends Trade amid Tariff pressures, as Berkshire Cash Sets Record. Reuters. [online] 3 May. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/business/buffett-defends-trade-amid-tariff-pressures-berkshire-cash-sets-record-2025-05-03/.
Uddin, R., Langley, W. and Jung-a, S. (2025). Chinese Exporters ‘Wash’ Products in Third Countries to Avoid Donald Trump’s Tariffs. [online] @FinancialTimes. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/147fddbb-7031-4347-9251-4425614e138d.
Wile, R. (2025). Stocks Unleash Remarkable Comeback after a Historic Dive from Trump’s Tariffs. [online] NBC News. Available at: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/stocks-unleash-remarkable-comeback-after-volatile-month-trump-tariffs-rcna204213# [Accessed 6 May 2025].
Global Mineral Negotiations
Sam Fayhee
Minerals and precious metals are of vital importance for manufacturing worldwide, and the United States is attempting to renegotiate its position, as currently underway with Ukraine and the Democratic Republic of Congo. However, in the wake of the tariff reveal, other states will be coming to the table.
Ukraine’s negotiations have had the most coverage, as the deal underway was the cause for the notable interaction between Zelensky and Trump in February. Originally the deal was meant to be passed at that fateful interaction, but instead there were numerous changes to the deal. President Trump wanted to be repaid for the aid that the United States had provided, whereas President Zelensky wanted further promises of support (Banco, Shalal, and Slattery, 2025). The current deal would give the United States privileged access to deposits and a requirement for Kyiv to put all income into a joint investment fund. Even though this iteration would address both sets of goals, it seems unlikely to be signed due to sources’ reports of a tense atmosphere (Shalal, 2025). Relations have been rebuilt, but Ukraine is hesitant to hand over a significant share of their income for a potentially shaky promise of support moving forward.
The negotiations with the Democratic Republic of Congo share some similarities with Ukraine. Currently, the DRC is fighting the Rwandan-backed rebel group M23 which has taken over a swath of the eastern portion of the country, including the city of Goma with over two million residents. This is an important mineral-dense area, and the country has a rapidly growing export market of cobalt, lithium, and more (Baskaran, 2025). Recently, China has been investing heavily in the country, but American interest would bring in new support for the repulsion of the M23 forces (Enendu, 2025). The US envoy to the DRC has promised that a successful deal would bring promises of security to the region which Chinese investment has not, and so this deal seems more poised for success than the one with Ukraine.
Countries which are not currently in negotiation with the United States right now are still preparing for changes in the global economy. Chile, for example, is the leading producer of copper and considering their new positioning. The Trump administration has recently called off the immediate implementation of tariffs, but the ninety-day period is a temporary stopgap for now. Chile would face the baseline ten percent, just like their competitor in production Peru, but their other competition in production comes from China (Solomon and Cambero, 2025). This means that the implementation of the planned tariffs would be beneficial for competition, even though it would harm absolute growth potential. Countries are not only negotiating with other states, but with general economic factors.
Overall, the American interest in natural resources relies on continued interaction with other states, even as security interests may cause some interruptions. The results of the current round of negotiations is unknown, but if they are successful the United States will gain new levels of access to resources while reinforcing its opinion about funding aid and security to allies.
References
Aikman, I. and Gregory, J. (2025, February 26). What we know about the US-Ukraine minerals deal. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn527pz54neo.
Banco, E., Shalal, A. and Slattery, G. (2025, March 28). US is pushing more expansive minerals deal with Ukraine, sources say. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-is-pushing-more-expansive-minerals-deal-with-ukraine-sources-say-2025-03-27/.
Baskaran, G. (2025, March 25). Building critical minerals cooperation between the United States and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. https://www.csis.org/analysis/building-critical-minerals-cooperation-between-united-states-and-democratic-republic-congo.
Enendu, C. (2025, April 4). US envoy says he’s working on DR Congo minerals deal. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp34140qkw0o
Shalal, Andrea. (2025, April 11). US, Ukraine hold tense talks as mineral deal remains elusive, source says. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-ukraine-hold-tense-talks-mineral-deal-remains-elusive-source-says-2025-04-11/.
Solomon, D. B. and Cambero, F. (2025, April 9). Chile sees positive twist to any Trump tariffs on copper. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chile-sees-positive-twist-any-trump-tariffs-copper-2025-04-09/.
Legal Purge: Trump Moves Against “Politicised” Law Firms and Lawyers
Amelie Baveja
In 2025, former President Donald Trump initiated an aggressive campaign against prominent U.S. law firms, accusing them of engaging in politically motivated actions against him. Through a series of executive orders, Trump targeted firms such as Perkins Coie, WilmerHale, Jenner & Block, and Susman Godfrey. These orders sought to suspend their security clearances, restrict access to federal buildings, and terminate existing government contracts. The administration justified these measures by alleging that the firms had participated in "election interference" and "deep state lawfare," citing their involvement in investigations and prosecutions related to Trump .
Critics argue that these actions represent a significant threat to legal independence and the rule of law. Legal experts and civil liberties organizations contend that targeting law firms based on the clients they represent undermines the foundational principle that every individual is entitled to legal representation. The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and other advocacy groups have expressed concern that such measures could deter attorneys from taking on cases that might be viewed unfavorably by the government, thereby chilling legal advocacy .
In response to the executive orders, several affected law firms have initiated legal challenges against the Trump administration. For instance, Perkins Coie filed a lawsuit asserting that the executive order violated constitutional protections, including the rights to free speech and due process. Similarly, WilmerHale and Jenner & Block have contested the orders in court, arguing that the actions were retaliatory and lacked legal justification .
While some firms, such as Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison, opted to settle by agreeing to provide pro bono services aligned with the administration's interests, others have steadfastly opposed the orders, emphasizing the importance of maintaining an independent legal system .
The broader legal community has expressed alarm over these developments. Over 4,000 lawyers and legal organizations have signed open letters condemning the administration's actions and urging the Department of Justice to uphold the integrity of the legal profession . Observers warn that if such executive actions are allowed to stand, they could set a precedent for future administrations to retaliate against legal entities based on political considerations, thereby eroding the checks and balances essential to a functioning democracy.
Wikipedia
References
Charter, D. March 10, 2025. “Trump targets America's largest law firms for working with opponents,” The Times. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trump-targets-americas-largest-law-firms-for-working-with-opponents-27g3kmq99.
Mayer, J. March 28, 2025. “How Donald Trump Throttled Big Law,” The New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/how-donald-trump-throttled-big-law.
Shamsian, J. April 3, 2025. “Top government contracts lawyer at Perkins Coie switches firms,” Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/top-government-contracts-lawyer-at-perkins-coie-switches-firms-2025-4.
Scarcella, M. March 12, 2025. “Legal profession 'watching in horror,' judge says in blocking Trump order against Perkins Coie,” Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-judge-temporarily-blocks-trump-order-targeting-law-firm-perkins-coie-2025-03-12/.
Tucker, E. March 11, 2025. “Two major law firms urge judges to permanently block Trump's executive orders,” Associated Press. https://apnews.com/article/7dba5f0c38ac547bf3f2bb1f31a2ef38.
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