August 2024 Newsletter

Foreword

Welcome Statement

As we sat down to begin writing this month’s newsletter, we realized just how difficult it would be to encapsulate the past month’s political events in a single newsletter. July was perhaps one of the most politically eventful months in recent memory, and summarizing it is no easy task. Between Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential campaign and the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, this presidential race is expected to be one of the most competitive and consequential in American history, which seems to be a recurring pattern. That being said, this newsletter will provide analysis and comprehensive, unbiased coverage of the most major developments that will unpack this dynamic political climate. We hope you find this issue informative as we work to keep you up to date  about the events that are shaping the future of American politics. Thank you for reading, and we hope that you enjoy the second edition of the American Politics Association’s Newsletter. 

Best,

APA Executive Committee

Election 2024

Attempted Trump Assassination

Former President Trump held a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13 which ended violently after an assassination attempt which resulted in 50 year old volunteer fire chief Corey Comperatore’s death and serious injuries to two other attendees. The shooter was killed following the attempt, whom federal law enforcement officials identified as Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20 year old from PA. Former President Trump’s right ear was grazed during the attempt, which the FBI is investigating as an assassination attempt and potential domestic terrorism. Following the assassination attempt, the Secret Service has received heavy backlash, with sharp criticism aimed at Secret Service leadership under whose watch the attack occurred. On July 23, the director of the Secret Service, Kimbrly Cheatle resigned. This came in response to a Congressional hearing the day before, during which lawmakers from both sides of the aisle interrogated Cheatle and received rather inconclusive answers to nearly every single question. Following her resignation, Congress has continued their inquiries into Secret Service leadership, which many, (both in Congress and among those who attended the rally), view as having been responsible for the security failure. 

Hearings, investigation into assassination

The shooter fired from the roof of a warehouse less than 500 feet from Mr. Trump before being killed by counter snipers. Law enforcement officials recovered an AR-15 rifle from his body which had been legally purchased. The FBI discovered three explosive devices connected to Crooks, one of which was found in his home, and two others were found in his car parked near the rally. About two minutes before shots were fired, several attendees noticed Crooks on a rooftop and tried to alert law enforcement. A news release issued days later by the Butler Township manager said that as Trump arrived on state, “a call went out for a suspicious male” near the building and that “several officers… responded to the area to aid in the search”. An officer attempted to gain access to the roof when he made contact with Crooks, who pointed a rifle at him. The news release went on to say that the officer immediately communicated Crooks’s location, but that he started firing at Trump moments later. Congress and the Department of Homeland Security have opened their own investigations into the broader security failures which led to the shooter being able to get so close to the former president while carrying a firearm. The results of these investigations when made public will be reported in this newsletter.

How this could impact the race

Misinformation, disinformation, and conspiracy theories quickly spread on social media after the shooting. President Biden ordered an independent review of the security arrangements while also emphasizing the importance of resolving political differences peacefully, but it is unlikely that tempers will have cooled by November. Less than an hour after the shooting, Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) suggested charges should be filed against Biden “for inciting an assassination”. Trump’s running mate JD Vance posted on X that “the central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination”. Other major lawmakers such as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi condemned the violence on X and expressed their relief that Trump was safe. It is likely that the assassination attempt will further fire up Trump’s base in the election, though it is still unclear whether the assassination attempt has led to a substantial increase in support for his campaign. Regardless of personal political beliefs, the attempted assassination should be universally condemned. Violence is never a solution in a functioning democracy, and the Secret Service has a lot of work to do before it restores the American public’s faith in it. 

Republican National Convention and Trump Names his Choice for VP

Just days after the attempted assassination, the Republican National Convention formally nominated former President Donald Trump as its candidate for the 2024 election. He chose Senator JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate, a one time critic who became a loyal ally and is now the first millennial to join a major-party ticket. Hours later, Vance formally received the party’s nomination. Vance rose to national fame with the 2016 publication of his memoir “Hillbilly Elegy”. Vance has become one of Trump’s staunchest advocates for his policies on trade, foreign policy, and immigration, but he is largely untested in national politics at an extraordinary moment in American history. 

Vance has become a popular figure on the conservative media circuit, establishing him as the kind of leader who could carry Trump’s legacy into the 2028 election. The pick also means, however, that two white men will lead the Republican ticket at a time when Trump has sought to appeal to Black and Latino voters. It is also expected that picking Vance will help Trump in Midwestern states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Minnesota, which are expected to play critical roles in November’s election. 

Biden’s then-reelection campaign issued a statement criticizing Vance for saying that, had he been vice president, he would have allowed “multiple slates of electors” to challenge Biden’s victory over Trump four years ago. Trump has repeatedly spread falsehoods about election fraud before and after the January 6 riot at the Capitol; the Biden campaign has claimed that “Vance will do what Mike Pence wouldn’t on January 6: bend over backwards to enable Trump and his extreme MAGA agenda, even if it means breaking the law and no matter the harm to the American people”. 

Biden Drops Out of the 2024 Race

On Sunday, July 21 President Biden officially announced the end of his re-election campaign. In a statement posted to his twitter account, Biden expressed that “it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term”. He soon followed with an endorsement for Vice President Harris, writing that “‘My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee’”. Biden ended his bid for reelection after a disastrous debate performance in late June which inflamed concerns about the President’s age and his fitness for office. The announcement immediately upended a campaign that both political parties view as the most consequential in generations; the last time a President announced that he would not seek reelection was former President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968. Biden’s decision comes after more than 14 million Democrats cast votes supporting him through the primary process. This unprecedented action led to some hesitation among voters anxious to see how the process would play out.

These initial fears about instability among the Democratic party were quickly quelled. Democrats have rapidly fallen in line behind Harris’s sudden campaign, as she has received several key endorsements from major party leaders such as Biden, former Presidents Obama and Clinton, and an array of senators and representatives. Harris’s campaign announced August 2nd that it raised $310 million last month, a clear sign that donors who were hesitant to fund Biden’s campaign have had their concerns alleviated. Harris must pick a running mate and redirect the massive operation which had been built to reelect Biden to boost her candidacy instead. The Democratic National Convention is scheduled to be held Aug 19-22 in Chicago, where it is expected that Harris will be formally nominated as the party’s choice for president. 

The Trump campaign has been forced to change its messaging following Biden’s decision not to run in the 2024 election. Its original strategy, and easiest attack, was to highlight Biden’s age and question his fitness to remain in office - an attack which is now obsolete. The Trump campaign has now switched its messaging to include two components: 

1. The first line of attack by the Trump campaign is that the process by which Harris became the nominee was undemocratic. The Trump campaign refers to her campaign as a “coronation.” Certainly, her path to becoming the democratic nominee has been out of the ordinary. In 2019, during the Democratic primary, Harris was forced to drop out, hitting a low support level of only 3 percent nationwide in December 2019. It’s uncertain if she would have been able to win a Democratic primary - which is where the idea of a “coronation” comes from. This approach by the Trump campaign is unlikely to sway Democratic support away from Harris, as her current momentum has proven to be popular among her base. But it may prove successful among voters already frustrated with the Democratic party, who feel lied to about Biden’s competence over the past four years and about the lack of transparency among party leadership. Ultimately, this tactic is mainly geared towards firing up his own base.

2. Secondly, the Trump campaign has highlighted that VP Harris is more liberal than President Biden. For voters already against the policies of the Biden-Harris admin, Trump’s campaign is capitalizing on Harris’s largely liberal, partisan record. In 2020, the Lugar Center, part of Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy, produced their annual Bipartisan Index score for the 116th Congress. Former Sen. Harris ranked 94 out of 99, proving her to be one of the least bipartisan members of the Senate. As Vice President, she has softened many of her policies to better fit the Biden agenda. Most notably, she has rolled back her stances on fracking, healthcare, and the border. The Trump campaign has seized on her pre-Biden policies, branding her as a “radical liberal”, whether or not she stands by these ideals. 

Other attacks generated by the Trump campaign have proven to be rather ineffective. Trump has faced criticism for his questioning of Harris’ racial identity during his interview at the National Association of Black Journalists convention on July 31st. At this convention, Trump questioned Harris’ race and stated that she is a “DEI” hire. It is unlikely that these comments will help Trump’s reputation with Black voters. 

Polls following Biden’s decision to drop his reelection bid have shown positive signs for the Harris campaign. FiveThirtyEight projects the race as a tie between Harris and Trump; the average is slightly in Harris’s favor but falls well within the margin of error. Trump has also sent mixed messages about his openness to debate Harris; Biden and Trump’s original agreement was to debate on September 10 on ABC news, but on August 2 Trump wrote that he had now “agreed with Fox News” to debate Harris on that network instead on Sept 4. The Harris statement responded that Trump was “playing games” and that the vice president would be happy to discuss further debates with him once Trump had participated on Sept 10, as earlier agreed. 

The Harris Campaign on the Road to the DNC

Mobilizing Key Groups

As mentioned above, the Harris campaign has quickly mobilized, securing endorsements from key party leaders. More importantly, however, outside of party officials, Harris has received overwhelming Democratic support across America: from former Obama voters, to middle-aged White suburban women, and grassroots organizations. The clearest example of this support is the ‘White Women: Answer the Call’ fundraising event held on Zoom, which drew a virtual crowd of over 200,000 people, and raised more than $11 million for the Harris Campaign.

The Harris Campaign has successfully mobilized support from key demographics, all of which are essential to reaching 270 votes in November. However, a crucial group Harris has mobilized is White women, and more specifically, suburban White women. The importance of White women to the Trump campaign cannot be understated: this group largely voted for Trump in the past two elections, and were crucial to getting Trump elected in 2016. White women were already a problem for the Trump campaign as their support waned following the overturning of Roe v Wade. However, with Biden out of the race and being replaced with a younger woman campaigning for reproductive freedom, the Trump campaign faces an increasingly precarious situation as White women mobilize for Harris. The support- and resulting activism- from White women campaigning for Harris will be important in shaping the outcome in swing states, and especially the ‘Blue Wall States’ (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania). 

As there are multiple key demographics whose support Harris and Trump are fighting for this election cycle, the growing support for Harris from one key demographic will not decide the election. Ultimately, the main point to take away here is that the speed and quantity in which the Harris campaign is mobilizing support from unlikely voters is unprecedented. This is reflected in the polls as the major lead Trump had over Biden in swing states is quickly narrowing with Harris as the Democratic candidate. 

 Harris Names her VP: Tim Walz

After a tense week of media speculation, Harris has finally named her VP: current Governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz. Walz was one of three names frequently mentioned as a top contender in the race for VP; the other two top contenders were Governor of Pennsylvania John Shapiro, and Senator Mark Kelly from Arizona.

While Walz is Governor of Minnesota, he remained largely unknown and out of the national spotlight until two weeks ago: during an interview with MSNBC, Walz discussed Trump and Vance stating that “these guys are weird”. The clip went viral, with weird quickly becoming the party line when criticizing Trump-era Republicans, ultimately resulting in political commentators discussing how calling the Trump-Vance ticket ‘weird’ has been an effective tactic among party supporters.

Before entering politics, Walz was a high school social studies teacher, football coach, and faculty advisor for the school’s Gay-Straight Alliance. He also served in the National Guard for 24 years, being sent across the US and abroad. Walz first ran for office in 2006, where he beat the Republican incumbent in rural Minnesota, securing a seat in Congress. Walz spent six terms in the House of Representatives before running for Governor of Minnesota in 2018, defeating the Republican candidate by a significant margin . As Governor, Walz has successfully navigated crises including Minnesota’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and perhaps most notably, the fallout of police brutality when the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis sparked protests not only in the state, but across the US. 

While Walz certainly has that ‘Mid-Western dad’, rural appeal, his policy record in Congress and as Governor both reflect a highly progressive agenda. Walz has passed multiple pro-union and pro-worker policies, reflecting his own experience as a member of the United Auto Workers. In swing states like Michigan, securing the vote of unions is essential to winning. Walz is vehemently in support of securing reproductive freedom, leading Minnesota to codify the right to an abortion in its state constitution in March. This further boosts the Democratic party’s line that they are the only party fighting for Americans' access to reproductive healthcare. As Governor, Waltz has passed laws guaranteeing paid family leave and providing $545 million worth of child tax credits to parents in Minnesota. As such, Walz is guaranteed to appeal to families across America, many of whom are struggling due to high costs of living. Crucially for the Harris campaign, Walz appeals to the progressives and left-of-center liberals in the party, passing laws implementing free breakfasts and lunches in schools, approving a college financial aid program covering in-state public school tuition, and approving a $2.2 million increase for K-12 education funding- and these are just a few of the many liberal/progressive policies implemented in Minnesota under Walz governorship. As Harris faces significant criticism from the left of the Democratic party, putting Walz on the ticket is clearly a strategic move aimed at getting the progressive vote.

What makes Walz a great choice for VP, however, is his ability to appeal to a spectrum of voters. Walz passed a law mandating a state-wide transition to clean energy- a clearly progressive stance. However, Walz has simultaneously worked hard to support the massive mining industry in Minnesota- even while mining can have detrimental environmental impacts. Furthermore, Walz’s support for in-state mining projects- most notably the Twin Metals copper mine- has led him to clash with the Biden administration as the federal government blocked the plan for a new copper mine which Walz had approved. As such, Minnesotans largely view Walz as a pragmatic leader, not driven by party politics but a genuine desire to make life better for the people of Minnesota. The hope is that this perception of Walz- and both his progressive and pragmatic policies and stances- will help the Harris-Walz ticket by appealing to rural America, progressives, union workers, teachers, women, and so many more. 

In the lead up to the DNC, Harris and Walz are campaigning hard, stopping in many cities in key battle-ground states, hoping to mobilize a wave of support ahead of Harris’ certification as the Democratic party’s official  nominee. 

Domestic Policy News

CA Gov. Gavin Newsom orders California officials to clear homeless encampments

Following the Supreme Court’s decision in City of Grants Pass, Oregon, v. Johnson decision that gave localities the justification to fine and arrest people for sleeping outdoors on public property, California governor Gavin Newsom issued an executive order on July 25 which allocates $24 billion to local governments across the state to clear homeless encampments. The tougher approach has sparked widespread concern from civil rights groups who argue that criminalization and sweeps are costly responses which will not fix the crisis. In a report released in June 2024, the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority found that encampment removal isn’t effective at reducing encampments while costing over $3 million in two years, not including enforcement costs. 

President Biden puts forward Supreme Court Reform Guidelines

The Supreme Court has faced scrutiny for a variety of ethics scandals involving bribes and its recent ruling that Presidents have broad immunity from prosecution for crimes they commit in office. In a statement released July 29, President Biden called for three reforms to restore trust and accountability. These reforms include term limits for Supreme Court justices, a constitutional amendment that clarifies that no President is immune from prosecution for crimes committed while in office, and a binding code of conduct which requires Justices to disclose gifts, refrain from public political activity, and recuse themselves from cases in which they or their spouses have financial or other conflicts of interest. Biden’s decision to call for sweeping reforms to the court marks a turning point in mainstream American politics; the fact that Biden, a moderate Democrat, is calling for Supreme Court reforms shows how popular the idea of Supreme Court reforms has become in the American consciousness. However, this decision was not supported universally. Conservatives were quick to criticize Biden, accusing him of only seeking changes to the court because their recent rulings were politically unfavorable to him. Senator Cassidy (R-LA), accused Biden of trying to “overthrow the US Constitution because you don’t like the results”. Ultimately, Biden’s efforts are unlikely to be successful, as for now, yet they remain significant in solidifying mainstream support for reform.

Foreign Policy News

NATO Summit in Washington DC

In a highly anticipated summit, all 32 NATO members convened in Washington D.C. to convene for the 2024 NATO Summit. This summit was remarkable, marking 75 years of the alliance, and security threats most pressing since the Cold War. The NATO Members were joined by Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, and the leaders of Australia, Japan, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, and the European Union. At the summit, the leaders reaffirmed their commitment to cooperative security and rules-based international order.

Amongst a range of successful initiatives within NATO over the past year, two messages remain most clear. First, NATO members celebrated the recent accession of Sweden to NATO, reaffirming their commitment to NATO’s Open Door Policy. Their emphasis on this policy has specific pertinence to Ukraine, suggesting their willingness to incorporate Ukraine into NATO, provided Ukraine chooses to do so. Secondly, NATO members celebrated that more than two-thirds of Allies “have fulfilled their commitment of at least 2% of GDP annual defence spending”, and that defence expenditure by European Allies and Canada has grown by 18% in 2024. In domestic American politics, the 2% spending target has been a major concern, especially among increasingly isolationist conservative rhetoric. NATO leaders, in the United States and beyond, have begun to recognize the importance of increasing spending across the alliance as a whole. This is critical not just for retaining American support of NATO, but also for emphasizing the idea of unity throughout the alliance in the face of Russian aggression.

At the NATO summit in Washington, DC in July, NATO invited Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to attend a meeting, stating that “Ukraine’s future is in NATO”. NATO also agreed to provide more aid for Ukraine, including a pledge of long-term security assistance. In a statement released by the NATO-Ukraine Council, NATO agreed to coordinate the provision of military training and equipment for Ukraine, as well as a minimum baseline funding of €40 billion worth of military aid within the next year with the goal of eventually strengthening and rebuilding the Ukrainian security and defense sector. Any efforts made by NATO to strengthen political integration with Ukraine is welcome; as a sovereign nation, Ukraine has the right to choose which international organizations it chooses without coercion.

Israeli PM Netanyahu Addresses Congress

On July 24, Israeli prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed Congress emphasizing the importance of the U.S.-Israel relationship. Hundreds marched outside the Capitol and roughly 40 Democrats boycotted the speech in protest of the prime minister’s handling of the war in Gaza, which has killed and maimed tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians. This speech comes at a critical period: between the US’s election year and the Biden administration’s pressure on Netanyahu towards a cease-fire agreement, there is significant pressure on Netanyahu to secure continued American military aid to Israel following Hamas’ Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel which killed 1,200 people and resulted in the taking of over 240 hostages to Gaza. Despite the protests outside of the Capitol, Netanyahu personally thanked the political leaders of both parties who facilitated a military aid package that included $14 billion for Israel. He also thanked former President Trump and said Israelis were relieved that Trump had survived a “dastardly” assassination attempt. The Capitol Police said six people were arrested inside the Capitol, and that pepper spray was deployed on protestors. The department had erected the same fencing around the Capitol that was used after the Jan. 6 attack. 

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Election 2024

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